List of Papabili

My latest list of papabili: 

Cardinal Angelo Scola 71

Archbishop of Milan, Italy

Son of a truck driver and proud of his humble roots, Cardinal Scola has long been the bookies’ favourite. His ability to remain in the top ranks of papabile, observers say, is a testament to his suitability. As an intellectual, he is of the same mind and theology as Benedict XVI and some believe him to be Benedict’s preferred successor. Scola, who has held two Sees – Venice and Milan – that have traditionally been stepping stones to the papacy, has striven to find ways to avoid a ‘clash of civilizations’ through founding the Oasis Foundation to bridge the gap between the West and Islam. The Italian cardinal has also been close to Communion and Liberation, but has sought to distance himself from the centre-right movement after reports linked it with a few Italian politicians involved in corruption scandals. Being Italian yet outside the Vatican, some see him as best equipped to reform the Curia.  But he is not the best communicator (his addresses can be long and overly intellectualised), his English is fluent but not always easy to understand, and he may be considered too old. It’s also said that an insufficient number of Italian cardinals are likely to rally around him.

Cardinal Odilo Pedro Scherer  63

Archbishop of Sao Paolo, Brazil

Widely viewed as the strongest Latin American candidate, Cardinal Scherer appears – on paper at least – to have all the qualities needed to be the next Pope. Faithful to tradition but pragmatic, he is robustly pro-life, reputed to be a firm decision-maker, and as a Brazilian with German ancestry, he bridges the gap between Europe and the developing world. He also has both Curial and pastoral experience, having served as an official in the influential Congregation for Bishops (1994-2001) and, since 2007, archbishop of Sao Paolo – one of the Church’s largest and most challenging archdioceses. Benedict XVI is said to respect and admire him, and chose him to be one of the first members (and one of only two Latina Americans) of a new Vatican department for the “new evangelization” that seeks to bring the faith back to the increasingly secular West. As a non-Italian who can clearly govern, some see him as the ideal candidate for reforming the Roman Curia. But others argue that although personable, he lacks charisma, and remains too much of an unknown quantity. There are also doubts that the College of Cardinals are ready to appoint a Latin American cardinal, and they might prefer him to remain in Brazil where the Church faces a double threat from increasing secularism and Pentecostal sects that are drawing away the faithful.

Cardinal Marc Ouellet, 68

Prefect of the Congregation for Bishops

Noted for his cheerful, kind and humble persona as well as uncompromising orthodoxy and deep spirituality, Cardinal Ouellet leads most papabile lists. He was a lone voice in the face of radical secularism as Archbishop of Quebec, but many Quebecers still respected him for his spiritual writings and personal qualities. Benedict appointed him head of the influential Congregation for Bishops at the Vatican in 2010 where he has made laudable appointments, but he has also had plenty of curial experience in other departments and so has many contacts in the worldwide Church. And yet despite his many qualities, Ouellet’s record in restoring the faith to Quebec was sketchy, and he was unable to stem the sharp decline of Church attendance there. Some also feel he may lack the steel to be Pope, and point to the fact that he can become over emotional at times, though not in a Boehner-esque way.  He also comes from a difficult family: one of his brothers pled guilty to abusing two teenage girls, while another is a lapsed Catholic. As one observer put it: “If he can’t evangelize his own family, what are his chances of evangelizing the rest of the world?”

Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco 70

Archbishop of Genoa, Italy

A firm and loyal friend of Benedict XVI, Cardinal Bagnasco has emerged as a doughty yet softly spoken and deeply pastoral leader of the Church in Italy, and an ideal candidate to tackle increasing secularism. His meteoric rise is seen to be a testament to his abilities, and he has shown a steely resolve in confronting secularism, often launching stinging attacks on politicians in particular who try to legislate on issues going against the Church’s teaching. As head of Italy’s bishops, he railed against same-sex unions in 2007, a battle the Italian Church eventually won but which led to death threats against him and the presence of armed guards. He has also taken a similar firm line against euthanasia, as well as sexual abuse among clergy in Italy, saying a cover-up culture must be overcome. Bagnasco has also spoken out forcefully against Italy’s negative birth rate, warning it points to a “serious cultural catastrophe.” Politically, he has tried to steer a centrist position, but appeared to back Mario Monti in the recent election. Being Italian may also work against him when it comes to reforming the Curia, given accusations of some alleged complicity in Church appointments. Observers see Bagnasco as a possible compromise candidate should no leading cardinal secure a two thirds majority in early voting.

Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith 65

Archbishop of Colombo, Sri Lanka

Hugely popular among those on the traditional and conservative wing of the Church, Cardinal Ranjith ticks many of boxes required to be Pope on account of his wide experience, orthodoxy and reputed holiness. Softly spoken but with proven administrative abilities, he has experience as a Vatican diplomat (although he’s not formally trained) in East Timor and Indonesia, and speaks 10 languages. Strongly loyal to Pope Benedict, many consider him the ideal candidate to continue the Pope’s legacy. As an Asian, he would also help move the Church’s emphasis away from its euro-centrism. Ranjith has served twice in the Curia: first at the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples dealing with all the Church’s missions around the world, and then as number two in the Vatican’s department on liturgy. He also has the requisite diocesan experience having been made Archbishop of Colombo where he remains popular. But he was sent back to his homeland after allegedly clashing with some of his curial colleagues because of his traditional liturgical preferences (his earlier appointment as nuncio to East Timor and Indonesia is also said to have followed problems in the curia). Such claims are likely to make the cardinal-electors think twice about voting for him, especially given the divisions already existing in the Vatican’s upper ranks, but his strengths may eclipse the question marks.

Cardinal Gianfranco Ravasi 70

President, Pontifical Council for Culture

A well-read, leading biblical scholar, Cardinal Ravasi has worked hard to raise the Church’s profile in the world of high culture, establishing Benedict XVI’s “Courtyard of the Gentiles” initiative aimed at engaging atheist intellectuals. Moreover, Benedict chose him to lead this year’s Vatican Lenten retreat meditations which drew generally good reviews (the Pope called them “brilliant”). Good with the media, he’s a well-known figure on Italian television and radio and considered one of the country’s foremost intellectuals. Although a Curial official, he is outside the infighting and so in a strong position to reform its internal practices. But despite being a skilled communicator and someone willing to seriously engage even popular culture in spreading the gospel, Ravasi speaks no English and has no pastoral experience of running a diocese. His only administrative job prior to coming to Rome was as a librarian. More seriously, among many traditionalist Catholics, Ravasi is considered heterodox with a few ideas at odds with Church teaching. Ravasi may be cerebral, but is he prayerful? He’s also said to have little support among the Italian hierarchy, and his position at the Council for Culture carries little weight in terms of influence. Still, if the electors decide the new pope needs to be a reformer who can competently carry forward Benedict XVI’s enthusiasm for the New Evangelization, Ravasi may well be viewed as the most promising candidate.

Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn 68

Archbishop of Vienna, Austria

A member of a prominent aristocratic Austrian family that produced two cardinals in the 18th and 19th centuries, Cardinal Schoenborn – a polyglot and Dominican scholar – is another long-time figure on papabile lists. But his star has waned in recent years as his judgement has been questioned on a number of issues: some criticise him for not being firmer with dissenting priests in Austria while his others say he likes to take action on matters best ignored. Although he is a member of several Vatican Congregations and took a leading role in the Church’s new Catechism in the nineties, he has no real Curial experience. But past statements show he clearly supports reforming it: in 2009, he inadvertently publicly criticised Cardinal Angelo Sodano, saying he had blocked an investigation into Schoenborn’s predecessor who had been accused of molesting seminarians (Sodano is regarded by some Vatican observers as being one force behind the curial infighting in recent years). Schoenborn’s skills with the media, his leading role in the new evangelization, and his extensive experience of defending the Church in the face of radical secularism in Austria run in his favor, but his closeness to Benedict (he was one of his former students) may be a disadvantage while questions over his judgement, and the low possibility of another German-speaking Pope, go against him.

Cardinal Leonardo Sandri 69

Prefect of the Congregation for Oriental Churches

Born in Argentina to Italian immigrant parents, Cardinal Sandri appears to have all the necessary qualifications: papal diplomat, linguist, long curial experience at the highest levels. An affable figure adept at administration (under John Paul II he was in charge of the day-to-day running of the Holy See), Sandri’s Italian extraction means he could also bridge the gap between Europe, the Curia and the developing world. But he lacks pastoral experience and has never been a diocesan bishop. And although he would probably be able to reform the Curia to make it more efficient, it’s doubtful he would be able to root out the internal divisions among its highest officials, having been too closely associated with many of them. Other associations also weaken his chances: he was present during the poor governance of the Curia under John Paul II, and has been associated with sex and financial corruption scandals, the latter related to Argentina’s economic collapse in the early 2000s. Sources also say he was promoted to the Congregation for Oriental Churches to remove him from the Secretariat of State. Others have criticized him for announcing John Paul II’s death to the world, disregarding John Paul II’s own norms that stipulated the task should be left to the Cardinal Vicar of Rome.  In short, although he has the qualifications, many view Sandri as having too much baggage.

Cardinal Timothy Dolan 63

Archbishop of New York, USA

Although it’s said a Pope cannot come from a superpower, the relative decline in US global influence and clashes between the Obama administration and the Church make an American president more feasible. Cardinal Dolan’s supporters say he offers three key skills needed to be the next Pope: the ability to govern, unify the Church and effectively deal with the media. Many highlight his remarkable achievement in uniting the US Church in recent years and, given that is a Pope’s primary task, that may win him some crucial support. He is also lauded for his conservatism while at the same time, as head of U.S. bishops, he has managed to avoid partisan politics and steered the American Church towards the center ground. But his linguistic abilities are not the best, he’s also a Curia outsider, even though he knows it quite well through being a seminary rector in Rome. Some also question his administrative skills and he also is said to be too willing to compromise on some crucial issues in a bid to win support for the Church down the line (some cite same-sex marriage legislation in New York as an example).  His affable nature and good humour could win many over to the faith, his supporters say, but others argue he’s too jovial and lacking sufficient gravitas to be taken seriously as Pope.

Cardinal Luis Tagle 55

Archbishop of Manila, Philippines

A gifted communicator renowned for his personal humility, simplicity and empathy for the poor, Cardinal Tagle – nicknamed “Chito” – is seen as one of the Church’s rising stars destined for even higher office. A respected scholar who is half Chinese, he is likely to appeal to the cardinal-electors for being a leading figure in Asia where the Church is growing fast, and for having the potential to reach out to China where relations with the Holy See remain a priority. He is staunchly pro-life, but his close connections with the Bologna School, a modernist body in the Church veering to the left, is a cause for concern and could exacerbate internal divisions. His youth and the fact that he was only appointed cardinal last November also go against him. If he were elected, he could conceivably be Pope for another thirty years. Although he has experience of running one of the world’s largest dioceses, he has no experience of the curia apart from participation in synods and being a member of some Vatican dicasteries. Some also argue that his genteel nature is the opposite of what is required if the Vatican is to be reformed and the Church is to be effectively governed. The consensus is that although Tagle could well be papal material in terms of intellect and personal holiness, this election would be too soon. His best chance, they say, will probably be during the election that follows.